Journal of Risk and Financial Management

19 pages, 950 KB

Open AccessArticle

Do Shiller Macro and Micro Narratives Characterize the S&P 500 Index Returns? New Insights

by Anastasios G. Malliaris and Mary Malliaris

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020115 (registering DOI) - 4 Feb 2026

We propose two narratives to analyze monthly returns for the S&P 500 Index. The first narrative emphasizes variables that represent the macroeconomy: Fed Funds Effective Rate, Real M2, 10-Year T-Note minus 2-Year T-Note, Shiller Housing Index, industrial production, and 1-Year Expected Inflation. The [...] Read more.

We propose two narratives to analyze monthly returns for the S&P 500 Index. The first narrative emphasizes variables that represent the macroeconomy: Fed Funds Effective Rate, Real M2, 10-Year T-Note minus 2-Year T-Note, Shiller Housing Index, industrial production, and 1-Year Expected Inflation. The second narrative focuses on microeconomic fundamentals that include earnings, CBOE Volatility, consumer sentiment, interest rates, global price of copper, and the Dollar Index. We perform a methodology of 348 rolling regressions for each narrative, each with a sample of 60 monthly observations, and estimate the significance of the independent variables considered. We conclude that the microeconomic narrative with its indicators tied to stock market activities correlates with monthly returns more closely than macro fundamentals do. The new insight from this paper is that it is beneficial to employ both narratives as complementary rather than as competitive. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Editorial Board Members’ Collection Series: Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2nd Edition)

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31 pages, 299 KB

Open AccessArticle

Diversity at the Top: How Ethnic Composition of Management Influences Corporate Performance in U.S. Companies

by Silvia-Andreea Peliu

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 114; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020114 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the impact of ethnic diversity among employees and managers on firm performance, focusing on return on assets and return on equity. The analysis is conducted on a sample of 391 U.S. companies over a five-year period, 2020–2024. The [...] Read more.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of ethnic diversity among employees and managers on firm performance, focusing on return on assets and return on equity. The analysis is conducted on a sample of 391 U.S. companies over a five-year period, 2020–2024. The quantitative framework includes a wide range of indicators related to financial performance, ethnic diversity among employees, ethnic categories of managers, and other control variables. The research methodology employs the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to highlight these effects, using fixed-effects and random-effects regression models, both linear and nonlinear. By estimating the regression models, the empirical results support the hypotheses established in the current state of the literature, indicating that ethnic diversity affects firm performance in a mixed manner, with both positive and negative effects on ROA and ROE. These findings are particularly relevant for practitioners, given the need to integrate minority representation into performance assessment, risk evaluation, and decision-making processes. Furthermore, regarding the female component within firms, this dimension contributes to the promotion of sustainability and a sound ESG-oriented approach. Consequently, social factors such as ethnicity can influence companies’ financial performance and shape how firms are perceived by investors. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Trends and Innovations in Corporate Finance and Governance)

69 pages, 510 KB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring Gender Diversity, Board Heterogeneity, and Corporate Risk Outcomes: Evidence from STOXX600 Firms

by Nicoleta Tiloiu

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 113; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020113 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study examines the evolving role of board heterogeneity, including gender diversity, board attributes, and governance practices, in shaping corporate risk outcomes. In mature governance settings, corporate risk management emerges from the interaction between board structure, independence, leadership arrangements, and boardroom composition, such [...] Read more.

This study examines the evolving role of board heterogeneity, including gender diversity, board attributes, and governance practices, in shaping corporate risk outcomes. In mature governance settings, corporate risk management emerges from the interaction between board structure, independence, leadership arrangements, and boardroom composition, such that gender diversity in isolation may no longer fully capture board effectiveness. We argue that while gender diversity remains relevant, its explanatory power operates in conjunction with other board characteristics that condition the quality of decision-making in already well-functioning boards. Using multiple regression estimations on a sample of STOXX600 firms, our main outcomes show that in mature European boards gender diversity (1) improves the operational efficiency, conditional by model specification, (2) increase debts level to finance growth, thereby enabling more rapid expansion than would otherwise be possible, without pushing to extensive borrowing, while reduce leverage starting 33% (3) prevents corporate failure starting 40% women on board (4) gender-diverse boards increase liquidity when critical mass is met (33%). Overall, the findings suggest that gender-diverse boards contribute to a reconfiguration of firms’ risk exposure across operational, financial, liquidity, and failure dimensions, rather than a uniform reduction in risk. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Trends and Innovations in Corporate Finance and Governance)

20 pages, 658 KB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Performance and Firm Valuation: A Meta-Analysis of Tobin’s Q in the Post-IPCC AR6 Era

by Akanksha Akanksha and Thirupathi Manickam

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 112; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020112 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study examines whether corporate climate performance is reflected in firm valuation by synthesising recent empirical evidence, using Tobin’s Q as a forward-looking indicator of market expectations. Employing a random-effects meta-analysis of 30 peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2025 across multiple industries [...] Read more.

This study examines whether corporate climate performance is reflected in firm valuation by synthesising recent empirical evidence, using Tobin’s Q as a forward-looking indicator of market expectations. Employing a random-effects meta-analysis of 30 peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2025 across multiple industries and regions, the findings reveal a modest yet statistically significant positive association between stronger climate performance and higher market valuations, suggesting that investors increasingly incorporate climate-related information into firm pricing. Contrary to prevailing assumptions in the literature, proactive climate strategies, such as emissions-reduction initiatives, do not systematically generate greater valuation benefits than disclosure-oriented approaches; both exhibit comparable positive effects. Similarly, valuation outcomes do not differ materially between self-reported and externally verified climate data. Meta-regression analysis identifies data source as the only statistically significant moderator, although its influence remains nuanced. Overall, the results indicate that climate performance enhances firm valuation in a context-dependent manner, challenging the view that only proactive strategies or externally verified data are uniquely rewarded by financial markets. The study contributes to the sustainable and corporate finance literature by clarifying how capital markets price climate-related corporate behaviour under heterogeneous strategic responses. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Trends and Innovations in Corporate Finance and Governance)

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25 pages, 641 KB

Open AccessArticle

Reimagining Value-Added Tax Reform Through Digital Rebates and Advanced Simulation for Inclusive Fiscal Policy

by Vinodh K. Natarajan, Jayendira P. Sankar and Lamin Jarju

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020111 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

This paper examines the regressive nature of the value-added tax and proposes an integrated framework combining a uniform value-added tax rate with progressive, digitally administered rebates. The model was performed using household- and firm-level microsimulations with Monte Carlo methods. It demonstrates that equity [...] Read more.

This paper examines the regressive nature of the value-added tax and proposes an integrated framework combining a uniform value-added tax rate with progressive, digitally administered rebates. The model was performed using household- and firm-level microsimulations with Monte Carlo methods. It demonstrates that equity can be reached without revenue neutrality being undermined. Simulation results for a calibrated 2024–2025 economy show the proposed rebate structure reduces the effective tax burden on the lowest income quintile from 13.5% to 5.4% of income, delivering a net cash benefit of USD 786.88 and a welfare gain of 6.10%. The policy is projected to generate a robust average VAT revenue of USD 17.44 million, with a 97.8% probability of a positive fiscal impact, while reducing the poverty rate by 2.6% and lowering inequality (Gini coefficient of utility to 0.199). The outcomes present a welfare gain for the poor, a small firm-level effect, and a decrease in poverty and inequality. The results suggest a feasible policy route towards a more equitable tax system, thus promoting indirectly to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth) and SDG 10 (reduced inequalities). Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Business and Entrepreneurship)

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31 pages, 1093 KB

Open AccessSystematic Review

From Pricing to Integration: A PRISMA-Guided Systematic Review of ESG Integration and Risk Modelling in European Banking

by Evanthia K. Zervoudi, Rafael Hadjimarcou and Apostolos G. Christopoulos

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020110 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

This paper conducts a PRISMA-guided systematic review of the empirical literature on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk integration in European banking. Using evidence systematically retrieved from Scopus, ScienceDirect, IDEAS/RePEc, and SSRN, the review synthesizes 51 peer-reviewed and working studies published between 2020 [...] Read more.

This paper conducts a PRISMA-guided systematic review of the empirical literature on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk integration in European banking. Using evidence systematically retrieved from Scopus, ScienceDirect, IDEAS/RePEc, and SSRN, the review synthesizes 51 peer-reviewed and working studies published between 2020 and 2025, reflecting the recent and rapidly evolving nature of this research field. The analysis classifies the literature into three domains—pricing and allocation, monitoring and stress testing, and governance and management control systems—and evaluates whether ESG variables operate as first-order drivers within production credit-risk models. The results indicate that while ESG signals are increasingly incorporated into pricing decisions, stress-testing exercises, and governance frameworks, no study provides verifiable evidence of full model-level integration within Probability of Default (PD) or Loss Given Default (LGD) models. The contribution of this review lies in systematically identifying the structural, data-related, and supervisory constraints that sustain this integration gap and in proposing a roadmap that distinguishes incremental ESG sensitivity from genuine prudential model embedding. Overall, the findings clarify that ESG responsiveness in European banking is substantial, yet integration into core risk models remains limited. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Banking and Finance)

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16 pages, 670 KB

Open AccessArticle

Equity at the Top: Board Diversity and Executive Remuneration in South Africa

by Gretha Steenkamp, Mareli Dippenaar, Tamzin de Lange, Jenna Frade and Cara Jordaan

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020109 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

For listed companies, board diversity is often associated with improved decision-making, sustainability and financial performance. However, prior studies have neglected the interplay between board diversity and executive remuneration, especially in developing countries, over extended time horizons, and at the level of individual executives. [...] Read more.

For listed companies, board diversity is often associated with improved decision-making, sustainability and financial performance. However, prior studies have neglected the interplay between board diversity and executive remuneration, especially in developing countries, over extended time horizons, and at the level of individual executives. This study addressed this gap by examining the evolution of board diversity and executive remuneration in South African listed companies from 2002 to 2017. Specifically, it investigated trends in board diversity and the determinants of executive remuneration, with particular attention to gender and ethnic pay gaps. Descriptive and regression analyses were conducted on a dataset comprising 8835 executive-level observations. Findings reveal a steady increase in female and non-white executive representation, possibly to align with societal expectations and remain legitimate. However, persistent gender and ethnic pay gaps were also noted, which might indicate that white and/or male executives are more entrenched and able to extract additional remuneration in line with the managerial power theory. The study contributes to the literature by documenting long-term trends in diversity and remuneration, providing empirical evidence on the influence of demographic attributes on remuneration outcomes, and offering insights for regulators, investors and non-executive directors seeking to advance equity and effective governance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Research on Corporate Governance and Financial Reporting)

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15 pages, 711 KB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Financial Risk Management of Digital Services Companies Using Integrated Entropy-Weight TOPSIS Model

by Weng Siew Lam, Weng Hoe Lam and Pei Fun Lee

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020108 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

Digital services companies help in the digitalization and transformation of the industry in driving Malaysia by advancing the economy of the country. However, digital services companies often face financial risks in terms of liquidity, solvency, efficiency, profitability, and operational risks. These risks increase [...] Read more.

Digital services companies help in the digitalization and transformation of the industry in driving Malaysia by advancing the economy of the country. However, digital services companies often face financial risks in terms of liquidity, solvency, efficiency, profitability, and operational risks. These risks increase the chances of failure and financial volatility, which put the companies at a serious disadvantage. This paper proposes an integrated Entropy-Weight TOPSIS model to analyze the financial risks of the listed digital services companies within Malaysia. The entropy method helps to prevent subjective weights by reflecting on information obtained from the financial reports of the companies. This study also provides an analysis to show possible improvements for the companies. The interest coverage ratio (ICR), which measures the capability to settle interest on debt, shows the highest weight followed by the basic indicator approach (BIA) and return on asset (ROA) based on the entropy weighting method. In addition, CLOUDPT, ITMAX, and MSNIAGA are ranked as the top three digital services companies that give the highest relative closeness to the ideal solution. The results help the risk managers to identify the criteria that caused the greatest financial risk in digital services companies to formulate targeted strategies to improve the companies’ financial health. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue AI and Emerging Technologies in Governance, Risk and Earnings Management)

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27 pages, 434 KB

Open AccessArticle

Stakeholder Engagement on Social Media and Firm Performance: Evidence from Multi-Platform Digital Interactions

by Berto Usman, Abdurrachman Bakrie, Ridwan Nurazi, Intan Zoraya and Somnuk Aujirapongpan

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 107; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020107 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study examines the influence of stakeholder engagement with corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures on social media and corporate financial performance, grounded in legitimacy theory and stakeholder theory. Using a panel dataset of 388 firm-year observations of Indonesian listed companies over the period [...] Read more.

This study examines the influence of stakeholder engagement with corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures on social media and corporate financial performance, grounded in legitimacy theory and stakeholder theory. Using a panel dataset of 388 firm-year observations of Indonesian listed companies over the period 2019–2022, we investigate how stakeholder interactions across four social media platforms—Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube—relate to firm performance measured by Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). Panel data regression results reveal that stakeholder engagement on visual-based platforms plays a significant role in enhancing financial performance. In particular, Instagram likes and YouTube likes are positively associated with ROA (β = 0.0004, p < 0.05; β = 0.0002, p < 0.05), while Instagram comments, YouTube likes, and YouTube views show a significant positive relationship with ROE (β = 0.011, p < 0.01; β = 0.0006, p < 0.01; β = 0.000249, p < 0.01). In contrast, engagement metrics on Facebook and Twitter do not exhibit a statistically significant association with firm performance. These findings suggest that stakeholder engagement with CSR disclosures through high-engagement, visual-oriented social media platforms can strengthen corporate legitimacy and stakeholder relationships, ultimately contributing to improved financial outcomes. The study highlights the strategic importance of platform-specific digital communication in enhancing firm performance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Business and Entrepreneurship)

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23 pages, 529 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Contribution of Sustainability and Governance Signals to Return on Equity Prediction: Evidence from Tree-Based Machine Learning, Bootstrapped Grouped CV and SHAP

by Hasan Talaş, Ela Naz Gök, Özen Akçakanat, Gürkan Gültekin, Mustafa Terzioğlu, Burçin Tutcu and Güler Ferhan Ünal Uyar

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020106 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

In the global economy, traditional accounting-based ratios alone are often insufficient to fully explain firm performance, increasing the importance of complementary information sources such as sustainability and governance disclosures. In this context, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators, together with corporate governance signals, [...] Read more.

In the global economy, traditional accounting-based ratios alone are often insufficient to fully explain firm performance, increasing the importance of complementary information sources such as sustainability and governance disclosures. In this context, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators, together with corporate governance signals, have increasingly been recognized as important drivers of firm performance. However, the literature does not provide a clear and generalizable view on the impact of ESG indicators on profitability. This study aims to examine whether sustainability and corporate governance signals provide additional information value beyond traditional financial ratios in predicting ROE. To this end, two models were compared using a sample of 428 non-financial publicly traded companies operating in Turkey. The firm-level dataset was constructed using financial statements and independent audit disclosures obtained from the Turkish Public Disclosure Platform (KAP). Tree-based machine learning models were employed to capture potential nonlinear relationships and complex interactions between financial and non-financial indicators. Model performance was evaluated within a Bootstrapped Grouped Cross-Validation framework that considered firm-level dependency; the statistical reliability of performance differences was tested using bootstrap-based confidence intervals and matched tests. Among the evaluated models, Random Forest achieved the strongest overall predictive performance. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that sustainability and corporate governance disclosures provide statistically significant additional information value to ROE prediction. Due to the use of multiple algorithms, it contributes to the literature in a generalizable manner. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Financial Technology and Innovation)

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24 pages, 428 KB

Open AccessArticle

Debt Thresholds and Unemployment Nexus: A Study on Fiscal–Monetary Policy Interactions Across the EU Member States

by Sumaya Khan Auntu and Vaida Pilinkienė

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020105 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study examines the regime-dependent threshold between fiscal and monetary policy interactions across the EU-27 states, utilizing quarterly data from 2000 to 2025. A fixed-effects panel threshold regression model has been adopted in this study, using endogenously determined debt thresholds, to assess how [...] Read more.

This study examines the regime-dependent threshold between fiscal and monetary policy interactions across the EU-27 states, utilizing quarterly data from 2000 to 2025. A fixed-effects panel threshold regression model has been adopted in this study, using endogenously determined debt thresholds, to assess how budget, debt, money supply, inflation, and fluctuations in interest rates interact under different debt regimes. This analysis also incorporates shock dummy variables following mild recessions and inflationary pressures, the global financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent energy price and inflationary shocks. Consequently, three major findings emerge: firstly, fiscal deficits increase unemployment across both regimes, but their positive contribution is significantly reduced by 81% in high-debt regimes. Therefore, conventional Ricardian equivalence has been supported throughout this study in terms of precautionary savings and crowding-out impacts, which further contribute to intensifying with alternative debt regimes. Secondly, monetary variables, in this paper, have demonstrated limited direct effects on unemployment mitigation that highlight the transmission mechanisms under high-debt regimes. Thirdly, the effectiveness of crisis response critically depends on existing fiscal spaces, while the debt regime is interconnected with labor market outcomes. The main findings of the study provide empirical support for the Maastricht debt criterion of 60% as a structural threshold, which is a benchmark for a fundamental shift in the policy transmission mechanism. This study has identified rules and regulations for uniform fiscal consolidation as insufficient; rather, state-contingent governance frameworks have been highly recommended for managing asymmetrical fiscal–monetary policy interactions across different debt regimes. Furthermore, it contributes to the reformation of the more impactful fiscal and monetary policy interaction rule under a monetary union. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economics and Finance)

36 pages, 1521 KB

Open AccessSystematic Review

Performance, Fairness, and Explainability in AI-Based Credit Scoring: A Systematic Literature Review

by Rashed Bahlool, Nabil Hewahi and Wael Elmedany

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020104 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in the financial sector has seen a rapid increase over the past few years, offering new possibilities to streamline processes while ensuring profitability for lending institutions. With its data-driven capability, predicting the creditworthiness of applicants has demonstrated [...] Read more.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in the financial sector has seen a rapid increase over the past few years, offering new possibilities to streamline processes while ensuring profitability for lending institutions. With its data-driven capability, predicting the creditworthiness of applicants has demonstrated strong predictive performance, particularly for thin-file clients. Despite these advances, growing concerns regarding AI’s fairness, explainability, and regulatory accountability have increasingly limited its adoption in high-stakes credit decision-making. This paper presents a synthesis derived from a systematic literature review (SLR) of 43 peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2025, focusing on AI-based credit scoring and addressing at least one of the performance, fairness, or explainability dimensions. Eligible studies were limited to peer-reviewed journal and conference articles (2020–2025) retrieved from IEEE Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and ScienceDirect (last searched: 30 September), examining AI-driven credit scoring in consumer or lending decision contexts. Guided by the Relevance, Rigor, Reproducibility, and Quality (3Rs&Q) appraisal framework, the review analyzes how existing approaches navigate the interplay among performance, fairness, and explainability under regulatory and human oversight considerations. The findings indicate that these dimensions are predominantly addressed in isolation, with limited attention to their joint treatment in regulated deployment settings. By consolidating empirical and conceptual evidence, this review provides actionable guidance for designing and deploying credit scoring models in practice. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Transforming Business and Finance Across Different Sectors)

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21 pages, 370 KB

Open AccessArticle

Corporate Governance and Dividend Policy Under Concentrated Ownership: Evidence from Post-Reform Korea

by Okechukwu Enyeribe Njoku, Younghwan Lee and Justin Yongyeon Ji

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 103; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020103 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study investigates how ownership structure conditions the transmission of corporate governance mechanisms into dividend policy within the context of South Korea’s evolving regulatory environment. Using a balanced panel of 5022 firm-year observations from 558 non-financial KOSPI-listed firms over 2011–2019, we analyze governance [...] Read more.

This study investigates how ownership structure conditions the transmission of corporate governance mechanisms into dividend policy within the context of South Korea’s evolving regulatory environment. Using a balanced panel of 5022 firm-year observations from 558 non-financial KOSPI-listed firms over 2011–2019, we analyze governance quality using data from the Korea Corporate Governance Service. We employ both an aggregate score and four constituent dimensions: board effectiveness, shareholder rights protection, audit committee competency, and disclosure transparency. The empirical framework combines firm fixed effects estimation, binary logistic regressions, and a two-step dynamic System GMM approach to account for unobserved heterogeneity, payout persistence, and endogeneity. The results reveal systematic heterogeneity across ownership regimes. Among non-Chaebol firms, higher governance quality across all dimensions is associated with higher dividend payouts, consistent with the governance outcome hypothesis. In contrast, among Chaebol-affiliated firms, the effectiveness of governance mechanisms is selective rather than uniform. While the aggregate governance score and shareholder rights protection retain explanatory power for dividend outcomes, internal oversight mechanisms related to board structure, audit competency, and disclosure do not exert independent influences once ownership structure is taken into account. These findings show that concentrated ownership structures condition which governance mechanisms remain effective in shaping payout policy. Regulators seeking to mitigate valuation discounts in conglomerate-dominated economies should prioritize the substantive empowerment of minority shareholder rights, as these mechanisms retain influence over payout policy even under concentrated ownership structures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Research on Corporate Governance and Financial Reporting)

21 pages, 394 KB

Open AccessArticle

An Assessment of Economic and Geopolitical Risk Sensitivity in the Tourism Sector: Evidence from Firm-Level Performance and Stock Returns (2012–2025)

by Yeşim Helhel and Selçuk Helhel

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 102; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020102 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study examines how tourism companies in emerging markets respond to economic and geopolitical risks using a comprehensive panel data approach. Data from 23 tourism companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter [...] Read more.

This study examines how tourism companies in emerging markets respond to economic and geopolitical risks using a comprehensive panel data approach. Data from 23 tourism companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2025 were analyzed to assess their financial performance amid macroeconomic shocks and regional crises. The analysis addressed ‘multiple crisis’ scenarios such as the Russia–Turkey plane crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a significant earthquake in 2023. Panel regression results reveal that financial leverage (LEV) and GDP growth have a significant and statistically meaningful impact on profitability and stock performance compared to sectoral volume indicators (number of tourists and spending). The findings emphasize that tourism companies are highly sensitive not only to sectoral demand but also to overall economic confidence and macroeconomic stability. This study highlights that adopting flexible capital structures is essential for corporate resilience in uncertain times. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Risk and Return in Modern Financial Markets)

23 pages, 332 KB

Open AccessArticle

From Social Ties to Social Responsibility: How Social Capital Shapes CSR Practices Around the World

by Imad Jabbouri, Omar Farooq, Maryem Naili and Ahmed Ankit

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020101 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

This paper uses data from 61 countries to document the relationship between country-level social capital and corporate social responsibility (CSR) during the period between 2007 and 2023. We find that firms headquartered in countries with higher levels of social capital exhibit higher CSR [...] Read more.

This paper uses data from 61 countries to document the relationship between country-level social capital and corporate social responsibility (CSR) during the period between 2007 and 2023. We find that firms headquartered in countries with higher levels of social capital exhibit higher CSR engagement than firms headquartered in countries with lower levels of social capital. This association remains robust across a wide range of estimation approaches and sensitivity checks. Additional analyses explore the mechanisms through which social capital affects CSR by disentangling its underlying dimensions. Finally, we show that the economic value of CSR (as measured through its association with Tobin’s Q, sales growth, stock return volatility, and financial distress risk) varies with the level of social capital, with CSR playing a more prominent value-enhancing role in low-social-capital settings. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk-Informed Decision-Making in Managerial Finance: Insights for an Era of Uncertainty)

23 pages, 360 KB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Financial Markets in the Bulgarian Agricultural Sector

by Lyubomir Lyubenov and Byulent Idirizov

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020100 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the interrelationships between public and corporate finance, gross value added (GVA), and the output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. The value of crop production shows a strong correlation with all financial indicators of the [...] Read more.

The purpose of this study is to examine the interrelationships between public and corporate finance, gross value added (GVA), and the output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. The value of crop production shows a strong correlation with all financial indicators of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria—public, corporate, and total—as well as with corporate finance in the national economy. The value of the final output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria also exhibits a strong correlation with national corporate finance, the corporate finance of the agricultural sector, and this sector’s total financial resources, both public and private. The regression analysis demonstrates that public funding plays a leading role in mobilising private capital in the agricultural sector. A strong dependency is observed between state support, corporate lending, and total financial resources, confirming that public funds promote trust and stimulate investment activity. Crop production is identified as the structural driver of productivity and gross value added (GVA) of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. However, excessive public subsidies may reduce its efficiency. Private loans—particularly agricultural credits—are emerging as a key mechanism for transforming the potential of the agricultural sector into actual growth. The regression models indicate the possibility that 1 billion BGN in loans lead to the creation of more than 2 billion BGN worth of crop production output, and more than 6 billion BGN in terms of final products. These findings justify that the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria is based on a balanced interaction between public financing and active private investment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)

24 pages, 346 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Role of Legal and Regulatory Frameworks in Driving Digital Transformation for the Banking Sector in Qatar with Global Benchmarks

by Bothaina Alsobai and Dalal Aassouli

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020099 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study evaluates how legal and regulatory architectures shape banks’ digital transformation in Qatar relative to peer jurisdictions and isolates the regulatory components that most strongly predict observed differences in digital maturity. Employing a comparative mixed-methods design, the study links a structured legal-regulatory [...] Read more.

This study evaluates how legal and regulatory architectures shape banks’ digital transformation in Qatar relative to peer jurisdictions and isolates the regulatory components that most strongly predict observed differences in digital maturity. Employing a comparative mixed-methods design, the study links a structured legal-regulatory assessment to quantitative benchmarking of fifteen banks (five Qatar, ten international) using a Digital Maturity Index and inferential tests (descriptive statistics, independent-samples t-tests, and OLS regressions). International banks exhibit higher average digital maturity than Qatar banks, and across the sample, regulatory clarity and coherence are positively and significantly associated with digital maturity, whereas supervisory intensity alone shows no comparable effect; implementation frictions in open banking/interoperability, unified data protection, and approval timelines constrain collaboration and product rollout in Qatar. Moreover, the cross-sectional design, modest sample size, and index weighting choices limit causal inference and external validity, indicating the need for longitudinal and quasi-experimental designs to corroborate mechanisms and generalize findings. Policymakers should adopt risk-proportionate, outcomes-based rules, codify interoperable API standards, strengthen data rights and cloud/third-party governance, and establish sector-level KPIs to match supervisory expectations with bank execution and accelerate safe digitalization. Enhancements to privacy, data portability, and inclusive digital onboarding are likely to improve consumer trust, competition, and access, thereby advancing broad-based participation in digital financial services. The study integrates legal analysis with bank-level operational metrics through an analytically tractable index and a Qatar–international comparison, demonstrating the outsized role of regulatory clarity in advancing digital maturity. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Banking and Finance)

18 pages, 392 KB

Open AccessArticle

Stock Liquidity and Social Media Analyst Coverage: Evidence from Tick Size Pilot Program

by Yuqi Han, Dan Luo and Yinge Zhang

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020098 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

Social media analysts (SMAs) on venues such as Seeking Alpha have become an important information intermediary for retail investors, particularly for smaller firms that receive limited attention from traditional channels. This study examines the effects of the wider tick size on social media [...] Read more.

Social media analysts (SMAs) on venues such as Seeking Alpha have become an important information intermediary for retail investors, particularly for smaller firms that receive limited attention from traditional channels. This study examines the effects of the wider tick size on social media analyst coverage in the U.S. capital market. Using the SEC’s 2016–2018 Tick Size Pilot Program as a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences design on approximately 2400 small-cap stocks, we find that wider tick size leads to a significant decline in the number of articles and unique contributors for treated firms. This effect is particularly strong for stocks with initially narrow bid–ask spreads. Furthermore, we find no significant change in the sentiment and quality of SMAs’ reports, indicating that the decrease in coverage is primarily driven by liquidity considerations rather than fundamental changes in the firms. These results imply that market microstructure reforms can inadvertently weaken the retail investor information ecosystem by discouraging independent research production. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Corporate Finance and Governance in a Changing Global Environment)

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14 pages, 268 KB

Open AccessArticle

Trust in Financial Technology: The Role of Financial Literacy, Digital Financial Literacy, Technological Literacy, and Trust in Artificial Intelligence

by Thomas A. Hanson and Caleb Ott

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020097 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study examines the relationships among financial literacy, digital financial literacy, technological literacy, and trust in artificial intelligence (AI) as predictors of consumer trust in fintech applications involving robo-advisors or chatbots. A sample of 117 college students responded to an online survey with [...] Read more.

This study examines the relationships among financial literacy, digital financial literacy, technological literacy, and trust in artificial intelligence (AI) as predictors of consumer trust in fintech applications involving robo-advisors or chatbots. A sample of 117 college students responded to an online survey with scales designed to measure these constructs. Results confirmed that the three literacy measures were significantly correlated, reflecting their overlapping knowledge and cognitive perspective. However, trust in AI showed no significant correlation with any literacy measure, and regression analysis revealed that trust in AI was the sole statistically significant predictor of trust in consumer fintech. These findings suggest that fintech adoption is driven largely by trust rather than financial or technological competence, creating potential vulnerabilities when consumers lack the literacy to evaluate AI-generated financial advice. The results highlight the need for financial education programs to integrate fintech alongside traditional literacy topics and suggest a possible role for regulatory reform to support users of fintech. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Role of Financial Literacy in Modern Finance)

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